European mobility finance: A €25 billion growth opportunity

Mobility is changing. Consumers increasingly seek more-flexible mobility ownership options. At the same time, micromobility and electrification are on the rise.¹ For mobility finance—the area of financial services that provides solutions (such as loans and leases) to support access to mobility—these changes create new opportunities to evolve and grow. Mobility start-ups, rental companies, and banks that offer targeted financial products and services for the automotive industry are already entering the mobility financial-services market to stake their claims in areas such as car subscriptions with their customer-centric, digital offerings.

raditional mobility financial-services providers, captive-financing providers, universal banks (which provide a wide range of services), and specialized players looking to move into mobility finance have a significant opportunity to capture these opportunities and grow their overall businesses. The question is where revenue will move and how stakeholders should think about strategically engaging, particularly if they’re stepping outside their core businesses.

This article uses new, comprehensive McKinsey analyses of mobility-market dynamics in five major European countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom) that together represent 50 to 60 percent of the total European market. The insights illustrate the way critical revenue pools will shift and help us better understand the main sources of high growth. We then talk about opportunities to optimize efficiency, enter markets of outsize growth, achieve hypergrowth in niche areas, commit to specialized plays, and consolidate. We conclude by describing how decision makers could think about their next steps. These insights can illuminate opportunities in mobility-finance markets in Europe as a whole. Incumbents that act now can capture new areas in growth as the mobility mix changes.

Mobility trends and new revenue pools

We conducted in-depth analyses of mobility trends to estimate their effects on the industry’s revenue pools. This effort and the resulting insights represent the first systematic view of how mobility trends—such as increased demand for used-car financing, micromobility, and EV-adjacent charging infrastructure growing out of Europe’s electrification—affect the European mobility-finance ecosystem. We estimate that those trends will create about €25 billion of new annual revenue for mobility-finance providers by 2030 in the countries we analyzed, which represents a 4 percent compound annual growth rate for the market

But our analysis suggests that growth potential will differ by market segment. While growth expectations are positive overall—more than 10 percent per year in some segments—the market for financial services and products for new B2B passenger vehicles is projected to decline by 1 to 2 percent per year. Micromobility, driven by strong growth across all market segments, will likely contribute about 5 percent of total revenue in 2030, compared with about 1 percent in 2023. EV charging infrastructure, the newest market segment for mobility-finance providers, will remain a relatively niche segment, contributing about 1 percent of total 2030 revenue. But beyond 2030, continued momentum could make EV charging infrastructure a key revenue driver.